Fuel blockade deepens Cuba's crisis as U.S. pressure tightens

The brief in 7 cards

1. Context1 / 7
   • An editorial examines the U.S. embargo on Cuba, which has tightened sharply in 2026.
   • On 29 January 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) allowing extra tariffs on goods from any country that directly or indirectly supplies oil to Cuba. It describes the Cuban government as an "extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security.
   • This came after Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba stopped, following the U.S. operation that removed President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026.
   • In May 2026, three UN Special Rapporteurs described the measures as "energy starvation", and said they undermine a wide range of human rights.
   • In June 2026, Cuba's National Assembly approved 176 economic reforms, the island's largest economic shake-up in six decades.
2. Note2 / 7

   From embargo to blockade

   The table below sets out how U.S. restrictions on Cuba have built up.

   Year	Measure
   1959	Cuban Revolution; nationalisation of U.S.-owned assets follows
   1960	U.S. bans most exports to Cuba, except food and medicine
   1962	Embargo expanded to cover almost all trade
   1992	Cuban Democracy Act; the UN General Assembly begins its annual resolutions against the embargo
   1996	Helms-Burton Act codifies the embargo and penalises foreign firms dealing in confiscated property
   2026	Executive order targets third countries that supply oil to Cuba

   • Why Cuba calls it el bloqueo, the blockade. The measures reach beyond U.S.-Cuba trade into shipping, banking and companies in third countries, which Havana says makes them a blockade rather than a bilateral embargo.
   • Opposition at the UN. The General Assembly has adopted a resolution against the embargo every year since 1992. In October 2025 the vote was 165 in favour, 7 against and 12 abstentions, down from 187-2-1 in 2024, as some European and Latin American states shifted. These resolutions are not binding.
3. Note3 / 7

   The two positions

   This card sets out the documented positions without adjudicating between them.

   • The U.S. position. The executive order accuses Cuba of aligning with countries and groups hostile to the United States, including Russia, China and Iran. Washington says the pressure is aimed at political and economic change, and urges Havana to respect human rights.
   • Cuba's position. Havana says its political system is a matter of national sovereignty. Its Foreign Minister called the January order an act of aggression.
   • The UN experts' view. The rapporteurs called the fuel blockade unlawful, and urged Washington to stop using such measures as a coercive tool.
   • The legal debate. Critics argue that extraterritorial sanctions violate freedom of trade and navigation. The editorial adds that any threat or use of force against Cuba's political independence would breach Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which bars the threat or use of force against any state's territorial integrity or political independence.
4. Key highlights4 / 7
   • Energy. Cuba has said its fuel supply fell by about 90% after it could not import oil for over three months, causing long daily blackouts and rationing.
   • Health. UN experts cited reports of a backlog of more than 96,000 surgeries, including about 11,000 for children, and delays in immunising infants.
   • Food and water. Fuel scarcity disrupts transport, refrigeration and farming. Power cuts stop water pumps, which shows how energy, water and health are linked.
   • The economy. Tourism and other foreign-exchange earners have suffered, and economic decline has driven large-scale emigration.
   • Not only sanctions. The editorial argues that the crisis also reflects domestic weaknesses: low productivity, weak investment, ageing power plants and scarce foreign exchange.
5. Key concepts5 / 7

   1. Why was Cuba so vulnerable?

   Under a 2000 agreement between Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro, Venezuela provided subsidised oil while Cuba sent doctors and other professionals. As Venezuela's output fell the shipments shrank, and they stopped altogether in January 2026. Mexico's state oil firm Pemex had been shipping nearly 20,000 barrels a day in 2025, but paused some shipments under U.S. pressure.

   2. How is Cuba responding?

   Cuba says it has installed 1,418 MW of solar capacity across 144 plants, and expects to exceed 1,500 MW by the end of 2026. Renewables provide about 21% of its electricity. China has been a key partner, supplying solar parks and equipment.

   3. What are the limits of solar?

   Solar produces nothing after sunset. With only 50 MW of battery storage installed so far, Cuba still depends on ageing thermal plants for night-time power and for grid stability.

   4. What did the June reforms change?

   The 176 measures allow larger private firms, let Cuban and foreign investors buy stakes in state companies, open fuel trade to private investment, remove taxes on solar equipment, and permit foreign-currency accounts.

   5. What is the wider geopolitical effect?

   The editorial argues that U.S. pressure may push Cuba closer to China and Russia, sharpening great-power competition in the Caribbean.

6. Way forward6 / 7

   These are the editorial's suggestions, not agreed policy.

   • Protect humanitarian access to food, medicine, fuel and medical equipment, regardless of political differences.
   • Build energy resilience through solar with battery storage, grid modernisation and a wider range of fuel suppliers.
   • Pursue domestic reform in agriculture, private investment and tourism, alongside external diplomacy.
   • Seek a diplomatic solution grounded in sovereignty, non-intervention and confidence-building.
7. Note7 / 7

   

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